Google Searches for ‘Mortgage Assistance’ Surge to Levels Unseen Since 2009

A viral graphic on social media showing a big jump in Google searches for “Mortgage Assistance” has made people worry that the housing crisis of 2008 could happen again, with interest levels at levels not seen since 2009. According to Google Trends, homeowners are more worried, but economists say things might not be as bad as they seem. They say that search trends don’t always mean that people are having real money problems.

Google Searches for Mortgage Assistance

A graphic circulating on social media showing a dramatic increase in internet searches for the term “help with mortgage” is sparking fears about a rerun of the 2008 foreclosure catastrophe.

However, economists believe the situation is not as bad as it seems.

The figure was initially noticed by X users, including the betting market Polymarket, who added the foreboding warning: “BREAKING: Searches for “help with mortgage” surpass the 2008 housing crisis.”

While search interest in the keyword “help with mortgage” has lately increased, the phrase’s prior high occurred in 2009, not 2008, according to Google Trends.

Google Trends does not reveal actual search volumes; instead, it estimates how popular a search phrase has been since 2004, when the firm went public.

Previously, the last significant increase in search interest for “help with mortgage” was in March 2020, exactly at the commencement of the COVID-19 epidemic. However, Google Trends reports that the increase did not approach levels seen in 2009.

The viral infographic seemed to throw up alarms for some.

It’s worth noting that these search patterns only reflect what individuals seem to be searching for on the internet, not the actual number of distressed homeowners.

In other words, those who search for “help with mortgage” may be financially secure, but they are seeking for mortgage assistance ahead of time because they are afraid of getting laid off, for example. The term “help with mortgage” might also apply to persons who need assistance acquiring a mortgage.

Furthermore, modern search traffic may not be precisely comparable to 2009, when internet use was less common.

“In general, I would avoid making strong judgements from Google Trends data. Methodologies and search trends change rapidly, making it difficult to compare over time, particularly so far back’, Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, told MarketWatch.

(Move Inc., a subsidiary of News Corp., operates Realtor.com; Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch, is also a News Corp subsidiary.)

However, other Google search patterns and mortgage-delinquency statistics show that homeowners are becoming more distressed.

Consider the linked queries that have gained traction in the last three months, according to Google Trends. They show that consumers are increasingly seeking for organisations that help with mortgage payments, mortgage-relief grants, and government support with mortgages, to mention a few.

According to housing-industry statistics, the searches coincide with a period when consumers are falling behind on their mortgage payments.

Mortgage delinquencies have been steadily growing in recent months, as MarketWatch has reported. Serious delinquencies, which relate to loans that are more than 90 days past due, increased by 30,000 in July compared to the previous year, according to Intercontinental Exchange.

Jake Krimmel, a senior economist at Realtor.com, says that we should be wary about drawing strong conclusions from Google Trends data since the way people search for items and the manner the data is collected vary over time. But other signs imply that homeowners are growing more and more worried.

For example, searches for phrases like “mortgage payment assistance organisations,” “relief grants,” and “government mortgage support” have surged in the previous three months. This is in line with housing data that indicates a persistent rise in delinquencies, including a 30,000 surge in severe instances (more than 90 days past due) in July alone, according to Intercontinental Exchange and MarketWatch.

First-time and lower-income homeowners, in particular, are struggling to make their mortgage payments. According to ICE, the “primary driver of stress” in the mortgage market was FHA-backed mortgages, which are generally utilised by first-time buyers or low-income persons. The business said that FHA loans accounted for 52% of significant delinquencies nationally in July.

FHA loans are more flexible than traditional mortgages. Borrowers may have a credit score as low as 580 and a down payment of just 3.5%, while traditional mortgages demand better scores and larger down payments.

“Data from the previous year or two reveal that lower-income households are suffering with their money much more than the rest of families. This has most certainly resulted in an increase in delinquencies for vehicle loans and credit cards. The similar tendency may be seen in mortgage delinquencies, according to Stephen Stanley, Santander’s senior U.S. economist.

However, the default rate for conventional mortgages, which most homeowners take out, has been far lower and more constant than that for FHA and Department of Veterans Affairs loans.

As a result, although there is evidence of increased discomfort among homeowners today, experts told MarketWatch that it is not cause for concern just yet.

“While the overall picture is mainly positive, there is a growing tendency of payment hardship for the most vulnerable homeowners. “I believe the search results reflect this,” Stanley said.

Overall, foreclosures are increasing, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels.

According to a research by property-data supplier Attom, the number of properties in the United States involved with a foreclosure filing, which includes default notifications, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions, increased by 18.1% in August compared to the same month last year. In other words, almost one in every 4,000 dwelling units had a foreclosure file linked with it.

That figure has been climbing during the last six months. However, it has not yet reached worrisome proportions.

Taking a step back, Realtor.com’s Krimmel said that the internet’s idea that the housing market will see widespread foreclosures similar to the 2007-’09 financial crisis was not supported — at least for the time being.

If one were to seek for cracks in the housing market, “I would pay much more attention to signals of local labor-market weakness,” he added, such as growing unemployment “in areas where house prices are also falling AND there were a lot of purchases post-2022 rate hikes,” he noted.

“For the ‘doomer’ theories of the 2008 redux to be true, you would need that sort of perfect storm: layoffs and falling house prices and high share of recent home purchases,” concluded the economist. “The good news is these perfect storms seem to be few and geographically isolated.”

Even if delinquencies and foreclosures are on the increase in general, “they’re also not a sign of a housing or financial crisis right now either,” Krimmel added, since other sections of the economy are performing well at the time.

We think that the rise in “Mortgage Assistance” searches shows that people are getting more worried because of the economy, but it’s important not to overreact. The housing market is still stronger than it was in 2009, thanks to low foreclosure rates and a strong economy. Homeowners should stay up to date, but instead of panicking, they should focus on making plans for their money.